Recurrence and Postoperative Death in Patients with Colorectal Cancer: A New Perspective via Semi-competing Risk Framework

Background/Aims: Cancer studies suffer from an overestimation of prediction of survival when both recurrence and death are of interest. This longitudinal study aimed to mitigate this problem utilizing a semi-competing risk approach evaluating the factors affecting recurrence and postoperative death in patients with colorectal cancer.

Materials and Methods: This longitudinal prospective study was conducted in 284 patients with resected colorectal cancer who were referred to the Imam Khomeini Clinic in Hamadan, Iran, during 2001-2017. Primary outcomes were postoperative outcomes and patient survival, including time to recurrence (of colorectal cancer), time to death, and time to death after recurrence. All patients who were alive at the end of the study were censored for death and who did not experience recurrence of colorectal cancer were also censored for recurrent colorectal cancer. The relationship between underlying demographics and clinical factors and the outcomes was assessed using a semi-competing risk approach.

Results: The results of the multivariable analysis showed that having metastasis to other sites (hazard ratio = 36.03; 95% CI = 19.48- 66.64) and higher pathological node (pN) stage (hazard ratio = 2.46; 95% CI = 1.32-4.56) were associated with a raised hazard of recurrence. The fewer chemotherapies (hazard ratio = 0.39; 95% CI = 0.17-0.88) and higher pN stages (hazard ratio = 4.32; 95% CI = 1.27-14.75) showed significantly higher hazards of death without recurrence. Having metastasis to other sites (hazard ratio = 2.67; 95% CI = 1.24-5.74) and higher pN stages (hazard ratio = 1.91; 95% CI = 1.02-3.61) were linked with the higher hazard of death after recurrence.

Conclusion: Considering findings on death/recurrence-specific predictors obtained in this study to manage the outcomes in patients with colorectal cancer, tailored strategies for preventive and interventional plans should be deliberated.

Cite this article as: Safari M, Mahmoudi L, Baker EK, et al. Recurrence and postoperative death in patients with colorectal cancer: A new perspective via semi-competing risk framework. Turk J Gastroenterol. 2023;34(7):736-746.